Predicting Technical Investors' Decisions in a Financial Market through Agent-Based Simulation

نویسندگان

  • Yoshiki Kano
  • Takao Terano
چکیده

We are developing an artificial stock market model with investor agents in order to analyze characteristics of a market price. In this paper, we analyze the effects of agent’s reaction rate to technical indicators in a financial market. Intensive experiments have suggested that trend follow investor tends to change his reaction rate frequently to increase his wealth. Moreover, we could get positive return using proper technical indicators in a given artificial stock price path. Based on these results, we propose a simple price estimation method in a real financial market.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Ranking and Managing Stock in the Stock Market Using Fundamental and Technical Analyses

The stock selection problem is one of the major issues in the investment industry, which is mainly solved by analyzing financial ratios. However, considering the complexity and imprecise patterns of the stock market, obvious and easy-to-understand investment rules, based on fundamental analysis, are difficult to obtain. Fundamental and technical analyses are two common methods for predicting th...

متن کامل

Ranking and Managing Stock in the Stock Market Using Fundamental and Technical Analyses

The stock selection problem is one of the major issues in the investment industry, which is mainly solved by analyzing financial ratios. However, considering the complexity and imprecise patterns of the stock market, obvious and easy-to-understand investment rules, based on fundamental analysis, are difficult to obtain. Fundamental and technical analyses are two common methods for predicting th...

متن کامل

Artificial Financial Markets: An Agent Based Approach to Reproduce Stylized Facts and to study the Red Queen Effect

Stock markets are very important in modern societies and their behaviour have serious implications in a wide spectrum of the world’s population. Investors, governing bodies and the society as a whole could benefit from better understanding of the behaviour of stock markets. The traditional approach to analyze such systems is the use of analytical models. However, the complexity of financial mar...

متن کامل

Analyzing the Influence of Overconfident Investors on Financial Markets Through Agent-Based Model

In this research, we employ Agent-Based Modeling to analyze how asset prices are affected by investors’ Behavior. We construct a virtual financial markets that contains several types of investors: fundamentalists and non-fudamentalists. In this analysis, we place focus on the influence of overconfident investors on financial markets. As a result of intensive analysis, we find that overconfident...

متن کامل

Predicting Bankruptcy of Companies using Data Mining Models and Comparing the Results with Z Altman Model

One of the issues helping make investment decisions is appropriate tools and models to evaluate financial situation 0f the organization.  By means of these tools, investors can analyze financial situation of the organization and identify financial distress or an ideal condition, they become aware of making decisions to invest in appropriate conditions.  The main objective of this study is to ev...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2006